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As global dynamics shift and competition among great powers intensifies, the United States must recalibrate its foreign policy to maintain its influence and safeguard its interests. In this strategic environment, small but strategically important nations can play pivotal roles in advancing U.S. objectives. One such nation is Armenia, a country often overlooked in discussions about global competition, yet critically situated in a region where geopolitical rivalries between the U.S., Russia, China, and regional actors are intensifying.
For a potential Trump administration, prioritizing Armenia within the U.S. grand strategy would be a wise move, offering an opportunity to enhance America's influence in the South Caucasus, counterbalance adversaries, and reinforce the U.S. commitment to religious freedom and democracy.
Here’s why:
1. Geopolitical Significance in the South Caucasus
Armenia sits at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, bordered by key regional powers like Russia, Iran, and Turkey. This location makes it a strategic linchpin in the South Caucasus, a region where the interests of the U.S., Russia, China, and regional players frequently collide.
For Russia, the South Caucasus is a vital zone of influence within its near-abroad, and Moscow has historically maintained close ties with Armenia, including military cooperation through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, recent events have shown a degree of disenchantment in Armenia with Russia’s security guarantees, especially following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where Russian peacekeeping efforts did not align with Armenian expectations.
China, too, has been expanding its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into the region, seeking to invest in infrastructure and gain influence over trade routes that traverse the Caucasus.
For the U.S., forging stronger ties with Armenia offers a chance to counter both Russian and Chinese influence in this critical region. While Georgia has traditionally been seen as the main U.S. partner in the South Caucasus, strengthening Armenia’s ties with the West would allow the U.S. to diversify its relationships and enhance its strategic positioning near Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Armenia could serve as a key partner in Washington’s broader efforts to maintain a foothold in Eurasia.
2. Balancing Regional Powers and Containing Adversaries
Turkey, a NATO ally with its own ambitions for regional hegemony, poses a complicated challenge for U.S. strategy. Turkey’s growing ties with Russia and its increasingly independent foreign policy, particularly its military involvement in the South Caucasus, has led to tensions within the NATO alliance. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war saw Turkey backing Azerbaijan, a development that further destabilized the region and threatened Armenia’s security.
By prioritizing Armenia, a Trump administration could send a clear message to both Turkey and Russia that U.S. policy is not constrained by Ankara’s or Moscow’s regional objectives. Armenia could become a strategic partner for the U.S. in countering Turkish assertiveness in the South Caucasus while providing Washington with leverage over Turkey. This would also support efforts to prevent Russia from monopolizing influence in the region.
Additionally, U.S.-Armenia relations can help contain Iranian ambitions. Armenia shares a border with Iran, and while it maintains pragmatic economic relations with Tehran, a stronger U.S. role in Armenia could help mitigate Iran’s influence in the South Caucasus. Armenia’s unique position as a small state between larger powers gives it significant geopolitical value in the broader U.S. strategy to contain adversaries and manage regional stability.
3. Countering China’s Expanding Influence
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has made deep inroads into the South Caucasus, and Armenia has been one of the countries Beijing seeks to engage through infrastructure projects and trade agreements. As China’s influence expands, it challenges U.S. dominance in global commerce, military presence, and technology.
A Trump administration should view Armenia as part of the larger effort to counter China’s growing foothold in Eurasia. By offering Armenia economic partnerships, investments, and diplomatic backing, the U.S. can present itself as an alternative to Chinese economic entanglement. Strengthening U.S.-Armenian relations would signal that the U.S. is committed to competing with China not only in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific but also in smaller but strategically important regions like the South Caucasus.
Moreover, engaging with Armenia offers a potential avenue for the U.S. to create alternative trade routes that bypass China-dominated infrastructure projects, promoting regional connectivity that aligns with Western interests.
4. Promoting Religious Freedom and Democracy
One of the hallmarks of U.S. foreign policy has long been the promotion of religious freedom, human rights, and democratic governance. Under a potential Trump administration, a renewed focus on Armenia could reinforce this commitment, particularly given Armenia’s status as the first Christian nation in the world. This Christian heritage resonates with many in the U.S., and prioritizing Armenia could bolster support among American constituencies that value religious freedom as a cornerstone of U.S. global leadership.
Additionally, Armenia has made significant strides in democratic reforms in recent years. The 2018 Velvet Revolution ushered in a new era of political transparency and governance reforms, positioning Armenia as a rare example of democracy in a region otherwise dominated by autocratic regimes. A Trump administration that seeks to promote “America First” values while supporting genuine democratic movements could find a natural ally in Armenia, a country whose democratic aspirations align with U.S. principles.
By prioritizing Armenia, the U.S. would not only be standing up for a historic Christian nation but also reinforcing its commitment to fostering democratic governance in a strategically critical region.
5. Strengthening Armenian-American Diaspora Ties
The Armenian-American diaspora is a politically active and influential community in the U.S., particularly in states like California. A Trump administration that prioritizes Armenia could tap into this diaspora's political and financial support, especially as it aligns with broader U.S. strategic goals. Strengthening U.S.-Armenia relations could help cultivate goodwill among Armenian-Americans, many of whom view the U.S. as a critical ally in ensuring Armenia's survival and prosperity in a volatile region.
This could lead to enhanced cultural and economic ties, furthering U.S. influence and ensuring that American values continue to shape Armenia's trajectory in the face of external pressures from Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
Conclusion
In an era of great power competition, the United States must be strategic about the allies it cultivates and the regions it prioritizes. Armenia, as a small but geopolitically significant nation, offers the U.S. a unique opportunity to advance its interests in the South Caucasus, counter the influence of adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran, and promote values of religious freedom and democracy.
A potential Trump administration should recognize Armenia’s importance and prioritize it as part of the broader U.S. grand strategy. By doing so, the U.S. can strengthen its position in a key region, demonstrate its commitment to standing by vulnerable but strategically valuable nations, and enhance its ability to compete in the global great power competition of the 21st century.
